2012/03/06

The Story of Our Survival: Science and Myth (GD Part 1.1)

The world as we know it is poised for a series of cascading crises, some of these will be caused by forces of Nature and some by Human hands. A number of these are avoidable, but many are not. Our species has survived cataclysm after cataclysm in the relatively short period of time we have inhabited the Earth, and in some cases, only barely.

An essential revelation occurs when we examine the intersections between several disciplines of modern science and some of Humankind's oldest legends and myths. It seems there is a message, which has been sent to us by the people of the distant past- an answer to surviving the upcoming crises that threaten our very existence. This is my interpretation of that message: it is not competition that advances and protects civilization (although competition can surely enhance it), but it is cooperation.

While Humans are not the only species that uses cooperation as a survival mechanism, we are the only ones who use cooperation to create complex cultural constructs that dynamically evolve over time-- and we must be aware of the kind of culture that we create. I suggest that the myths- but especially the creation myths- of all world religions have this one central message encoded within them - as well as a kind of oral history of the world - and I have picked a few to share with you in this article, as well as their correlation to actual events in Humankind's prehistory.


In the Beginning

We know that Homo sapiens did not invent the first wood and stone tools. The first tools originated in remote moments as far back as two million years ago, most likely by our ancient ancestors Homo ergaster or Homo erectus. Toolmaking was taught to each successive generation (just as modern chimps have been observed doing) not just for survival, but often for convenience. We, like our chimp cousins and our ancient progenitors, seek to better our present circumstances through the invention and construction of handy tools.

Homo erectus used tools, but it's unclear
what their language capabilities were like.
One of the most fantastic inventions credited to the Human race is language. Although it turns out several other species on Earth use vocal signals and body language to convey meaning, Homo sapiens are thought to be the only ones who do this to relate highly complex ideas. There exists no definitive evidence supporting or refuting claims that language with a high level of abstraction were developed by any of our early relatives like Homo heidelbergensis. However it is likely, given their methods of hunting and shelter building, that both Homo heidelbergensis and our hominin cousins, Homo neanderthalensis, used fairly complex verbal language.

Emerging from hazy depths of prehistoric consciousness there is a wealth of information that was faithfully memorized and relayed from one generation to the next. Some ideas were merely mechanical, for instance, how to build simple shelters and tools of wood and stone, while others may have included highly abstracted stories of gods and men, the creation of the world and the meaning of life.

Over most of Human history, oral traditions have transmitted the bulk of our knowledge from generation to generation. Then, at some unknown moment in the past, Humans applied yet another innovation to the tool called language: writing. This has enabled us to communicate across vast distances of time and space and is often cited as the spark that created civilization as we know it.

In these oral traditions and writings, there are over five hundred creation myths across the world in which animals and/or mankind emerge from a watery abyss. Most insist that the world was completely covered in water until the first speck of dirt emerged from the surface, sometimes including an animal or spirit who either raises the mud from the waters, or causes the waters to retreat from the land.

While it may seem like an obvious recounting of scientific facts- to those of us who have studied geology and the theory of evolution- these ideas were not discovered by ancient peoples through scientific investigation. Some original source had experienced this "creation" and had relayed the idea to their offspring. But where and when did these ideas originate, if there was indeed some experiential basis?

Throughout the last few million years, Earth has been prone to consistent cycles of drastic natural climate changes- fluctuations of global average temperature of 5-7 degrees Celsius- which casts the Earth into periodic Ice Ages lasting over 80,000 years (temperature fluctuations at high latitudes are seen to be significantly wider; 7-12 degrees C). During this time, while much of the Earth's water is frozen in glaciers, sea levels are known to be over 390 feet lower than they are at present, extending coastlines outward miles and miles farther than they are today, suggesting that shorelines were right at the edge of the continental shelves.

This graph shows sea levels changes in the last 140,000 years
We are taught in school about the Bering Land Bridge which connected Asia to North America during the last Ice Age- this is the theoretical route taken by the ancestors of the First Nations of North America as they migrated, over 15,000 years Before Present (BP). There are similar structures around the world which emerge from the water during these global Ice Ages, including land bridges that may have allowed the inhabitants of southern Asia to merely walk to some parts of what are now the island nations of Indonesia and Malaysia, or from mainland Europe to what is now called England.


That's not all. The amount of water trapped in polar glaciation of these Ice Ages is so extreme that the weight of the ice compresses the Earth. This causes the entire planet to bulge at the equator, pushing landmasses in the area higher and higher. Geologists claim that since the glaciers began melting at the beginning of the current Interglacial Period (called the Holocene Era, beginning about 20,000 years BP), land in the Northern Hemisphere has risen around 180 meters (600ft) and is continuing to rise today, while the "equatorial bulge" has decreased significantly.


Our planet is wildly changeable, and it's hard to imagine exactly what the landmasses looked like during the periods of heavy glaciation. Were the landmasses above sea level 20,000 years ago once inhabited? We may never know- given the difficulty of underwater archaeology- and that is what fascinates me the most. We'll come back to this.


Survivors of Global Cataclysm - The Scientific Observations

Looking deeper into our Human prehistory, we come across solid information indicating incredible hardships. Geneticists estimate that there was an event about 75,000 years BP that culled the Human race to less than 10,000 members (some researchers say as few as 2,000). This type of occurrence is known as a "bottleneck event"- in which we were left with genetic variations that are unusually narrow in scope. Most living species on Earth demonstrate much higher genetic variation within their populations than Homo sapiens. The prevailing theory is that it is because most of the Human population was killed off at that time.

The bottleneck event which occurred around 75,000 years BP was the eruption of the Mt. Toba supervolcano, located on the island that is now known as Sumatra, Indonesia. Geological evidence implies that the eruption of Mt. Toba was forty times larger than the largest eruption in recorded history. It is considered to be the second largest explosive eruption of the last 450 million years and the largest volcanic eruption of the last two million years.

Lake Toba, Sumatra, Indonesia

The fact that Mt. Toba is known as a "supervolcano" is no hyperbole. The eruption site is called a caldera, not a crater, and is about 30km wide by 100km long. The caldera is now a large lake. The eruption was so gigantic, geologists think it exploded for several days and had an immediate impact on the climate of the entire world. Volcanic ash (pulverized rock) and a cocktail of gases containing sulfur dioxide mixed with water vapor to form massive clouds of sulfuric acid which coated the planet's atmosphere. Clouds of this type have the unfortunate effect of reflecting sunlight back into space and researchers think that this eruption produced acid rains which destroyed a large part of flora and fauna all over the world. Perhaps hardest hit was the area within two or three thousand miles to the west of the eruption: central and southern Asia, the Middle East, eastern Africa, and the subcontinent of India, whose Human population may have dropped to less than six hundred (this estimate is based on interpretation of genetic information). Archaeological evidence suggests that a large population of archaic Humans and other hominins inhabited a region spanning from northern Europe to China. This population appeared to dwindle abruptly following the Mt. Toba eruption.

Imagine a world without the Bornean Orangutan...
(No... no, that's too sad)
Paleontologists and geneticists say several other large mammal species experienced specific effects and extinctions due to this eruption: Cheetahs, Bornean Orangutans, East African Chimpanzees, Central Indian Macaques, and the Tiger all recovered from extremely low populations following this event. Also following this cataclysm we find the separation of the gene pools of the Eastern and Western Gorilla, who were virtually indistinguishable prior to this time.

Estimations of the disaster include many conflicting details, but most agree that Mt. Toba caused a "volcanic winter" that lasted for six continuous years and caused global average temperatures to drop several degrees Celsius, for perhaps hundreds or thousands of years.

It was soon after the time of the Mt. Toba eruption, that despite the cold of northern climes, groups of Humans began a massive exodus from Africa- probably to escape the horrifically toxic environmental consequences of this incredible eruption. They did not know equatorial Africa was probably the least affected place at the time, neither did they know that they were heading toward an environment that had led to the elimination (or near extinction) of every other population of hominins.

Apart from the harsh environment produced by Mt. Toba, the world was already experiencing the onset of a new global Ice Age (the bulk of the last few million years has been one Ice Age after another, separated by brief warm spells known as Interglacial Periods). This was to be the next disaster for Humankind and other hominids. During the most recent Ice Age, Neanderthal man met their extinction and the last remaining archaic Homo sapiens became the emerging population of truly anatomically-modern Homo sapiens.

After scores of thousands of years of migrations and adaptations- frequently to very cold climates- Humans faced another ecological disaster: Global Warming. Around 20,000 years BP, the Earth began to rapidly heat, with global average temperatures rising 5-7 degrees C, culminating in the current Interglacial Period. During this time, the environment and the landscape changed drastically all over the world.

Modern glacial melt in Greenland
Melting glaciers created new rivers and lakes, while causing flooding that lasted for hundreds if not thousands of years at a time. Sea levels at this time rose over 120 meters (~393ft), pushing coastlines back for miles and wiping out land bridges and any possible coastal settlements. This did not happen during one episode or in one place, but repeatedly and in many locations over thousands of years. Dramatic effects would have been witnessed many, many times over all across the world. This is, I believe, the reason there are so many flood myths in traditional creation stories. Our ancestors actually lived through these catastrophic events.

Seventy-five percent of the overall rise occurred in only 5,500 years (between 14,500-9,000yrs. BP). Even in the last 8,000 years- very recently- there were incredible variations of sea level. The following graph shows Western Pacific Sea level changes over the last 22,000 years BP. The present day is located on the left side. We can see that there were several sudden increases of sea level, with several periods of apparent stability.


Many studies containing sea level change graphs and charts from across the globe all have very similar data, including floods of more than 20m (~65ft) at a time. Almost all show sea levels rising 120m (~393ft) or more in the last 20,000 years.


We can actually see from this diagram, that there was an initial rising of sea level- the exact amount not shown- which was higher than the present day shoreline. If we go back to the graph showing sea levels for the past 140,000 years, it seems that at some point around 8,000-6,000 years ago, sea levels were as much as 10m (~32ft) higher than they are today, but then retreated.


The Biblical flood of Noah may correlate to this most recent rise and drop in sea level beginning around 7,500 years ago and the data suggests that compared to most of the previous rises in sea level, it was a relatively minor flood. The timing of this event is probably what made it so historically significant, as anthropologists think this was not long after Human settlements became highly dependent on agriculture. Even relatively minor periodic floods would have utterly destroyed almost the entire food supply of the rapidly expanding population.

Interpretation

After the toxic effects of the Mt. Toba eruption were absorbed by nature, Humankind would have had 20,000-30,000 years to establish new settlements and civilizations before the termination of the last Ice Age and would have been concentrated in places where life was easier. Most of the largest Human migrations are thought to have occurred at this time.

During the latter stages of the most recent Ice Age, lower sea levels and colder temperatures in northern latitudes would have placed most of Humankind's settlements closer to the equator and/or mostly concentrated in little pockets near the ocean or riverbanks where food was plentiful and the climate was mild. I think those who were engaged in exploration of northern latitudes would likely have been "survivalists" and small bands of explorers or nomadic tribes.

When the Ice Age finally ended and the globe began to rapidly heat up, the glaciers melted at an extremely high rate. As this happened, the weight on the poles decreased and the planet actually changed shape fairly rapidly. There would have been major earthquakes and disappearing landmasses- due to rising seas, and also due to the "Geoid Collapse," in which some equatorial land "sunk" into the ocean. For one example, the land bridge from southern Asia through the present-day countries of Indonesia and Malaysia then became a series of islands.




The increased heat of the air would have allowed for immense amounts of moisture to be collected, resulting in seasonal rains and regular deluges where there had previously been very dry conditions. Entire regions of the Earth would undergo a complete transformation as the global average temperature rose almost 6 degrees C in less than 5,000 years.

The survivalists and nomadic tribes along the northern latitudes and highlands would have been among the most advantaged of the Human population at this time- as their environment was becoming milder and they were beginning to experience short "seasons" of warmer temperatures during the summer months. However, as the thaw progressed, these wayfarers in the north and the highlands would have been subjected to more and more extreme climatic shifts- extreme rainstorms, flooding, intermittent earthquakes, and disappearing sea ice.

The survivors of these catastrophic events may have a vivid memory of the period of flooding and the process of change, but not the stable glacial landscape that existed before. Taking this view, stories of the world being created out of a watery abyss are entirely consistent with the scientific account.

We must face the possibility that some of the more advanced/most densely populated ancient Human settlements from this prehistoric period have been washed away by these rising tides and are now under more than 120m (~393ft) of ocean water, miles away from present-day shorelines and buried under thousands of years of sand and sediment.


Survivors of Global Cataclysm - Ancient Oral Records and Scripture

Between 11,000-11,500 years BP, sea levels rose about 30 meters (~100 feet). Curiously, this corresponds to exactly the time when, according to Plato's version of the story, "Atlantis" is said to have disappeared into the sea. The story of Atlantis, in extremely broad strokes, goes like this:

A very Hellenic depiction of Atlantis
About 9,000 years before Plato, there stood an extremely advanced civilization, on an island (or series of islands), that had mastered all forms of magic/technology. But they had become careless and rather conceited in their superiority.

In some versions of the story, their hubris angers the gods and they are destroyed. In other versions, their great power grows beyond their control; the people grow ignorant of their magic/technology's true nature and they destroy themselves by inadvertently setting into motion a virtual self-destruct sequence. In either case, it is said that due to their unacceptable behavior this paradise and pinnacle of civilization was swallowed by the sea, never to be seen again.

This follows a fairly long list of references from Classical Antiquity to an earlier Golden Age, in which there existed a perfect Utopia. Plato and many of his contemporaries considered themselves vastly inferior to this previous civilization- no more than a shadow of its former glory.

It is likely that places like Atlantis are at least in some part based on fact- there would have been many settlements that were swallowed by the sea by rising tides or had sunk due to earthquakes. In terms of the idealized memory of these places- for now, let's just say that there is a basic Human need to put a positive spin on people and places that are gone forever.

Many cultures have stories that do not recount the beginning as a flood at all, but as a lush paradise where food grew everywhere and life was incredibly easy. Human beings had been simply deposited in this "Heaven on Earth" by the gods. The cuneiform engravings of ancient Babylon, thought to be the some of the oldest writings in the world, tell a story of creation that is very similar to the one found in the pages of Genesis in the Judeo-Christian texts:

At some point, man commits some unforgivable sin and the gods/God expels man from this paradise into a cold, harsh world where the land is barren and mankind is required, for the first time, to work for their foods by farming and hunting.

The first Humans were cast out of Paradise
This sounds a lot like the conditions surrounding the time of the Mt. Toba eruption. In Africa, the soil- indeed the very air itself- had been poisoned, which is most likely why people left in the migrations described by geneticists and archaeologists. Food would have been difficult to find no matter where Humans went. On top of the six-year volcanic winter caused by Mt. Toba's eruption, the most recent Ice Age had begun. After leaving Africa through passages to the north, Humans required much more clothing- portable, personal shelters from the cold.

When Humankind was "expelled" from the paradise we know as the Garden of Eden, the world was indeed more harsh. Everywhere they went it was harder than the "paradise" they had recounted in oral histories. This could be why the people kept going-- they were trying to get back to this idyllic "Garden" which existed in their social memory- and no place had yet measured up.

The cultures which preserve the story of an "Antediluvian" (before the flood) origin of Humankind report that the civilization before the flood was a thriving, vibrant civilization with a high standard of living. The story of the Tower of Babel, which appears in Hebrew, Assyrian, Babylonian and Sumerian texts, depicts an antediluvian civilization whose amazing achievements make the gods either nervous or jealous.

Unfortunately, as the story typically goes, the antediluvian culture had become "wicked" and was ultimately purged by the gods through the experience of a cataclysmic flood-- this story can also be found in The Epic of Gilgamesh from ancient Babylon (found to be based upon stories from the previous civilization of Sumer).

An original copy of The Epic of Gilgamesh
Mostly, the stories of antediluvian cultures in the Middle East and the Mediterranean region are short and vague- although it seems that Plato's account of Atlantis (if taken literally and not allegorically) represents the oral history of an antediluvian culture that had been omitted from most of the written accounts for some reason, or perhaps was just a creative Greco-Roman revision of these earlier Mesopotamian texts.

There are few cultures which have stories that are thought to be older than these texts of the ancient Tigris and Euphrates River valley. The creation stories of the Hopi of Arizona, the Vedic texts of ancient India, and traditional Tibetan legends of creation claim to be the oldest creation stories on Earth and share some fantastic correlations.

In these cultures, Humanity has risen -several times- to great heights only to be "humbled" through periodic/cyclic cataclysms. The Hopi legends describe these ages as "Worlds," and state that we have witnessed the destruction of three previous worlds- and are now in the Fourth World. According to The Book of the Hopi by Frank Waters (based on oral histories told to him by Hopi Elders in the 1960s), the story goes something like this:

Tokpela, the First World, was created by the gods and people lived in a rich and vibrant culture which understood "the nature of man himself," (The first chapter of this book goes on to describe what sounds almost identical to the Far-Eastern concept of chakras or energy points in the body)- these people experienced no sickness and lived in a virtual paradise... but there were those "of Two Hearts" which allowed evil to exist within them. Gradually, they forgot their connection to the gods, "and used the vibratory centers of their bodies for solely earthly purposes, forgetting that their primary purpose was to carry out the plan of Creation..."

After this, animals became frightened of Humans and the people split up and became different from each other (different races were created). Soon after, the "chosen people" from all over the world (those who had not forgotten their true nature or who had not lost their "inner wisdom") were led to a place where they would be safe, and the First World- with all its "wicked" inhabitants- was destroyed.

An interesting side-note here, which is very important to the Hopi story, is that these "chosen people" went to live underground with the Ant People, who were nearly the size of Humans at the time. They are seen as a model for Humanity, in their industriousness and their example of order and peace within society. It is said that "they obey the plan of Creation."

While the chosen people were underground, the gods destroyed the First World (whose leaders had been known as the Fire Clan), with fire.
"Sótuknang... rained fire down upon it. He opened up the volcanoes. Fire came from above and below and all around until the earth, the waters, the air, all was one element, fire, and there was nothing left except the people safe inside the womb of the earth. This was the end of Tokapela, the First World." (Waters, pp 14)
The creation myth goes on to tell that their coexistence within the world of the Ant People was so long, and the Ant People so generous- that by the charity of the Ant People, Humans survived even as the Ant People deprived themselves of nourishment- which is why ants today are so small around the waist.

The trouble in the Second World, Tokpa, began when people began to barter and trade with one another, instead of simply farming and storing food like the Ant People had taught them. As these people of the Second World grew to have more and more, their hunger for the easy life grew as well. They then began to war with one another and only a few good people sang the praises of the gods.

The gods saved the good people by sequestering them underground with the Ant People, while they destroyed the world yet again-- this time, with ice.
"[They] had hardly abandoned their stations when the world, with no one to control it, teetered off balance, spun around crazily, then rolled over twice. Mountains plunged into the seas with a great splash, seas and lakes sloshed over the land; and as the world spun through cold and lifeless space it froze into solid ice. This was the end of Tokpa, the Second World." (Waters, pp 16)
The gods kept this world frozen for many years, while Humankind was again cared for by the Ant People. The gods then prepared the Third World. In this new world, Humans were very prosperous and made a great civilization. However, the greatness of the civilization was again rivaled by the wickedness of its people.

The Third World is the most fascinating to me because in this world, the people made pátuwvota (a shield made of hide) "...and with their creative power made it fly through the air." These became aircraft which were used to mount surprise attacks on competing cities (this bears an incredible similarity to stories from the Vedas of ancient India in which the gods fly around in Vimana -flying temples- and battle each other mid-air). The people all over the Hopi's Third World were soon waging war with each other in this way, and it led to the gods' destruction of that world- this time, by water.

"Dammit, Joe! We missed the boat. Why, oh, why did we stop for Starbucks?"
This story gets more and more interesting, as the "chosen people"  are instructed by the gods on how to build boats and travel across the seas. They find many islands along the way which look perfect, but are told by the gods that life was too easy there and they would quickly fall back into wickedness. They float along until they come to a land where they are to eventually settle-- North America, the Fourth World (Túwaqachi). They then travel by foot in every direction and explore the boundaries of their new world. The gods tell them not to venture through the "Back Door" which is sometimes called the "White Way" in the north (aka The Bering Land Bridge). This method of overseas travel would have allowed the Hopi to leave Asia later than people crossing over the Arctic, but to arrive in the lower latitudes of the Americas much earlier.

The story notes that many people arrive through the "Back Door," including the Navajo, who the Hopi take in and teach. When the Navajo arrive, they at first refuse to eat food cooked in pots, insisting on eating food cooked over open flame instead. They are described as unkempt, wearing rough animal skins and having a more or less haggard look which you would expect of people who had just wandered across an Arctic wasteland (my apologies to any Navajo reading this who object to this particular depiction-- I'm just repeating the "official" Hopi story).

The Hopi see themselves as the original inhabitants of North and South America and claim that every civilization in the Fourth World is an offshoot of their own. The newcomers from the "Back Door" merely have joined them.

I highly recommend reading The Book of the Hopi by Frank Waters. The Hopi have a very interesting outlook on life and civilization, and claim to have taken residence on the Three Mesas in northern Arizona specifically because it is not an easy place to live.  In their view, it is an easy and convenient life which leads to wickedness and the degeneration of culture. While people are struggling and life is hard, they have no time to become wicked.

"Hopi Mesa" - Photo by Adam Clark Vroman, ca. 1897

The Hopi story is significant not only in scope, but in the description of the double-edged sword of Human culture and civilization. It has the power to save us, to sustain us and to elevate us to great advancements. It even can make our lives luxurious, wherein lies the second edge of the blade; we forget our connection to the Earth and we become lazy, greedy and individualistic when our lives are too easy.

I found this particular creation story interesting because of the three times the world has been destroyed- first by Fire, second by Ice and third by Water. It does seem to have an incredible amount in common with some scientific data. As far as oral histories go, this one is very extensive and has relevance to the scientific model of actual events in paleoclimatology.

Imagine that a population living near enough to Mt. Toba to witness such an event- destruction of the world by fire- had fled toward the east after taking shelter, perhaps in caves (or maybe the destruction of the First World is actually the story of the previous Interglacial Period over 100,000 years ago!). Over time, they would have migrated far toward eastern or northern Asia and experienced a long Ice Age. At the onset of the current Interglacial Period, long after the people had learned to adapt to the cold, the world began to thaw and their homeland sunk beneath the sea, forcing them to travel by boat until reaching the Fourth World.

If we examine the correlation between Tibetan, Indian and Hopi creation stories, it pushes their origin a bit further back in history than most anthropologists are willing to consider. The relationship between Tibet and India is direct and fairly recent, as they both have linguistic connections to ancient Sanskrit. But if the Hopi story of cyclic creation and destruction comes from the same source as these Asian cultures, we are forced to believe that the story originated more than 15,000 years ago, around or before the time that the first Hopi ancestors crossed from Asia to the Americas.

When we turn our attention back to the Middle East, which we consider the "Cradle of Civilization," we find that some of the earliest civilizations seemed to have emerged pretty much complete. Sumer, considered by anthropologists and archaeologists to be one of the first "true" civilizations, appeared almost overnight with fully formed writing systems, law, doctors, religion, astronomy, highly advanced mathematics and architecture, markets, and money (of course this is something of an illusion due to relatively sparse archeological evidence of periods of development versus their heights of civilization, but let's just roll with it as we explore these stories of creation).
Annunaki, the Sumerian mythological  figures
(Only some of them had bird-heads, FYI)

According to writings found in the ancient cities of Sumer, the Annunaki (a group of godlike creatures upon which it is likely the Greco-Roman pantheon was based) actually were responsible for instructing the Sumerians on how to build the social aspects and physical monuments of their civilization. The Sumerians were contemporaries with ancient Egyptians, who also displayed a sudden emergence of high culture.

Some of the most fantastic structures ever built were thought to be made at this time, during the "earliest" moments of our civilization- Such as the Great Pyramid of Giza.

 Is it possible that some of these ancient stories are correct-- that we have achieved great levels of advancement in the past, only to have them washed away by rising seas or other cataclysms? Were these early civilizations built upon the memory and knowledge of previous civilizations which have been forever lost to us? Did these early civilizations build megalithic structures specifically because they were likely to withstand floods, earthquakes and other natural disasters-- not only as monuments to their own kings or cultures, but as a message to the people of the future?

If so, what does that mean to us here and now?


A Culture of Interdependence

Regardless of the specific level of advancement of the previous Human populations, it is important to note that what actually helped us to survive these periodic cataclysms (other than intervention of the gods) was our ability to adapt and to cooperate. Our greatest invention- a tool called language, allows us to convey highly abstracted ideas and attach meaning through the use of symbols. It is certain that we have used these meanings and symbols to make alliances and create a Culture of Interdependence.

In the modern era, we have extended our interdependence far beyond what is reasonable. It is simultaneously our greatest strength and our most crippling weakness. Entire regions of the world are now completely dependent upon each other to provide food or natural resources which sustain our way of life.

Non-industrialized (often referred to as "underdeveloped" or "developing") nations often depend on industrial nations for food (from industrialized farming), technology and/or financial support, and they trade fuel, cash crops or other raw material resources in exchange for these. The central hub of the interdependence between the non-industrialized and industrialized nations is the global transportation network, which depends on the availability of cheap energy resources.

The modern lifestyle enjoyed by the industrialized world revolves entirely around the constant generation and distribution of electricity. It shuts down completely given any interruption of incoming resources- most cities have only a few days to a week's supply of food & drink or fuel on hand for their incumbent populations.

Most inhabitants of the industrialized world are highly specialized, either in terms of urban survival (street smarts) or in highly advanced and very narrow fields-- few individuals seem to have even a rudimentary concept of how to construct or configure any of the component parts of our modern systems, and even fewer still are adept at survival in the raw wilderness of the natural world, even under "normal" circumstances. Could we survive another global cataclysm? If so, how?

"Yo- Jesse... can I stay at your house tonight?
I got some... uh... plumbing problems..."
It seems the instructions for survival and for our success in the aftermath are recorded in the myths and legends of the ancient disasters- strict adherence to our spiritual codes. These do not require an allegiance to an ancient belief system. Rather, each culture which presents these myths of creation and destruction notes a similar structure of a sociological nature.

Within advanced civilizations, a polarization occurs: life becomes very easy for some but more difficult for others, who must now navigate a much more complex social structure which is increasingly more exclusive as each member's role becomes more specialized. This social stratification is also responsible for removing a number of social members from directly interacting with the Earth for survival.

The individuals on both sides of this polarization turn to a similar tactic- the advantaged become more lazy, self-centered and greedy, taking advantage of others for material gain and convenience, as the disadvantaged of the society are forced to work harder, becoming more self-focused and individualistic as a function of personal survival in an increasingly hostile and competitive environment.

There is a fundamental "falling away" from the accepted notions of social responsibility and interconnectedness which helped to facilitate the advancement of the culture in the first place. This is the  "sin" which is usually cited as what "destines" the civilization for destruction by vengeful gods: the people have "stopped singing their praises," by disregarding the most basic values of brotherhood and their connection to the Earth.

The "chosen people," who are to survive the coming cataclysm, remain "faithful to the gods" by adherence to the core values that every world religion/spiritual discipline promotes: kindness, brotherhood, generosity, honesty, mercy, mutual respect, faithfulness, working for the common well-being of the people, stewardship of the Earth, etc.

In reality, these core values help group members survive cataclysms, as the "faithful" work together for everyone's survival; while the "faithless" more or less trample each other in a self-interested & panic-stricken stampede. Even if the "faithless" survive the initial cataclysm, their behavior is remembered as counterproductive or dangerous to the group's well being and they are not allowed back into the fold for the reconstruction period.

Treating your fellow man as a brother
has practical applications, after all.
Reconstruction involves (aside from a physical or social rebuilding) a distillation of the civilization's core values and incorporates the struggle for survival (and the triumph of "the way" of the spiritually devout) into the mythos of the culture.

The emergent culture may have either a distorted/incomplete view of the original form of the spiritual discipline, or a more pure and concentrated understanding of its tenets. In either case, the cataclysm/crisis/disaster is held up as a testament to the greatness or "rightness" of its belief system.

Let's face it- if the ground beneath your feet suddenly explodes and everyone else is killed by fire & poisonous gases, or if your entire civilization is swallowed by the sea before your very eyes while you drift away on a boat your crazy uncle constructed on the roof of his house, you are quite likely to consider yourself "blessed" or "favored" by the gods for your ability to escape and start anew. The sheer incomprehensibility of your luck may escape all other explanations. 

(see: Survivor Bias)

Where this often takes a wrong turn is in the belief that this specific viewpoint is superior to others, or that the details of a specific dogma are more important than the general sense of working together for the common good of all Humankind.

Anatomically modern Humans are thought to have first emerged around 200,000 years ago. Several other hominin species have met extinction during this very same time period- possibly due to the same events that have nearly wiped out Homo sapiens-- I have outlined only a few of the known disasters of the last 100,000 years.

Whether it's a major climate disaster caused by Humans (or by Nature), or some extra-terrestrial event like a meteor strike, we must expect drastic and sudden change in our environment. It has been the "norm" in our short history on Earth.

On top of that, we now have the power to utterly destroy our Human world all on our own- through any number of anthropogenic ecological disasters, or with the power of nuclear weapons/other weapons of war, through our mismanagement of resources (fuels, food & water, building materials, capital/finances), or by neglecting the treatment of diseases which are entirely curable, preventable or manageable with nutrition, practical behaviors & modern medicine.

The underlying message from the ancient world is that with a little luck, through cooperation and service to our fellow Humans, we can survive our emergence into the "Fifth World"- and thrive. We can create a new kind of interdependence which is not profit-motivated; a society which is both Ethical and Rational. It is time for the Human race to grow up and really start taking care of each other - and our world. If we do this we will survive, just as our ancestors did, but we will have a more complete story to tell, with a deeper and richer cultural heritage.



2012/02/20

Canadian Tar Sands and the Keystone XL Pipeline - GD Part 2.1

Keeping our perspective on energy and resources is essential to adapting to the likely problems our planet will face this century. While at some point I will probably return to the issues of EROEI (Energy Return On Energy Invested) and the effectiveness/efficiency of certain biofuels and renewables, there are a few pressing political and economic concerns in the news today, such as the Keystone XL Pipeline, that are misrepresented by news media and special interest groups.


Canadian Tar Sands (Athabasca Oil Sands) and the Keystone XL Pipeline

The Keystone XL Pipeline is a major construction project under negotiation right now between some major oil companies and the US and Canadian governments. In Alberta, there is an area known as the Canadian Tar Sands (aka Athabasca Oil Sands). The region is virtually covered in bitumen (tar) which can be "upgraded" into synthetic crude oil. The total deposit is estimated to contain 1.7 trillion barrels of this substance, of which industry leaders think 173 billion barrels of synthetic crude can be produced. Of course, this has oil companies in a state of excitement, as synthetic crude yields a much higher profit than conventional crude oil.
Advisory: Objects in this photo are larger than they appear. The dump trucks pictured above have a 400 ton capacity. The actual dimensions of each truck are 45ft long x 35ft wide x  25ft high.

 As Royal Dutch Shell reported in 2006, conventional crude yielded a profit of $12.41 USD per barrel, while synthetic crude provided $21.75 USD per barrel. There is a massive incentive to continue ad infinitum with this project, since the potential for long-term profits are enormous -about $3.4 trillion USD for extracting just 10% of what bitumen may be in the sand. With the worldwide recession weighing heavily on the US economy, many have been swayed toward supporting this project.


Proponents of the Keystone XL Pipeline project within the United States tout some specific benefits from the pipeline's construction:

  • Jobs creation for construction and maintenance of the pipeline will stimulate the economy while combating unemployment.
  • Canada's oil is "ethical oil" (meaning that theirs is a government that is seen as just and fair) and their oil proceeds do not support governments which are seen as dangerous to American interests.
  • Refining the oil in facilities located on the US coast of the Gulf of Mexico is preferable, environmentally, to wherever these products may end up otherwise.

However, there are a few problems with the above arguments, which I will address in brief:
  • Even if the project were approved today, it is unlikely that construction will begin before 2015. Appropriating the land on the pipeline's path may cause further delay, as it involves securing "eminent domain" over private property. The outlook for completion of the pipeline is murky, at best. My guess is maybe 2021, at the earliest. It is unlikely to cure our current unemployment/economic problems- it's actually more likely that the economy will begin to do better on its own before then. 
  • Canada has issued permits for the extraction of product from the tar sands. Once the bitumen has been extracted, it belongs to the oil companies, not the Canadian government. Oil companies will continue to extract "unethical oil" from countries around the globe. While it's likely that Canada will receive some payment for the bitumen, global demand will keep stuffing the pockets of the "less ethical" oil suppliers.
  • The United States has the largest refining capacity of any country on Earth. Much of the world's oil comes here to be refined to begin with, and then is shipped by tanker to foreign markets
Further, there are significant environmental concerns, both due to the extraction process and the transport of the product.

Royal Dutch Shell claims they are very concerned about protecting the environment, and do their best to keep wildlife away from tailing ponds where they store waste water:
"The pond can contain high concentrations of acids and salts which are potentially harmful to wildlife. Birds are at risk as they can land on the pond. We detect approaching birds using radar and our system produces noise, light and movement to deter them from landing." 
Most strikingly, oil and gas companies are using the cleanest fossil fuel source, natural gas, in their process to extract a form of oil that is dirtier than conventional crude. But a very important aspect that has not been getting much attention is the actual overall energy and resource cost of the project. 


Net Gains vs. Political Consequences

If oil companies can get 173 billion barrels of oil out of the tar sands, it is a mere 12% increase in the world's total oil reserves-- on top of that, the act of extracting it would reduce the world's natural gas reserve supply by 3.8%, while making Canada and the US more dependent on natural gas imports from countries which have large natural gas reserves: Russia, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia or Venezuela.

Tar sands before extraction.
More than thirty oil and gas companies are using natural gas to power the energy intensive processes which extracts bitumen from the Canadian Tar Sands. The entire deposit is literally a sticky, dirty mess. As the name of the area indicates, the resources are mixed with sand, gravel and other contaminants. An average of four tonnes of earth must be excavated to extract each barrel of oil. Once extracted from the sand, bitumen doesn't flow well through pipelines because it's extremely heavy and semi-solid-- so it has to be "cracked" on-site or mixed with lighter oil before transport.


The most energy-efficient method for extraction is called Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD), which uses about 1.54 giga-Joules (GJ) per barrel of synthetic crude produced, which means that they must use 41.62 cubic meters of natural gas to extract and refine each barrel into synthetic crude (oil contains about 5.4-6.1 GJ per barrel) -- in terms of energy input versus returns, this is barely acceptable at 4:1 [UPDATE: the actual average EROI for SAGD is closer to 3:1, on average], and we haven't even looked at "cracking," transport and refining yet. Worse, when you note that for this to work running on natural gas as they have been, it would require 4.3 times Canada's entire natural gas supply (or 7,200 billion cubic meters of natural gas) to extract 173 billion barrels of synthetic oil from the tar sands.

Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD)
Proven natural gas reserves of Canada are in the range of 1,700 billion cubic meters. Canada consumes 93.8 billion cubic meters each year, and exports 92.4 billion cubic meters to the U.S. which equals 186.2 billion cubic meters. At that rate of use, without the use of even one cubic meter for the extraction of bitumen from the tar sands, that 1,700 billion cubic meters would last about 10 years (although that figure does not account for growth of consumption). Canada would have to begin importing natural gas from elsewhere, and slow exports of natural gas to the United States.

Canada is the main supplier of natural gas imported to the US, so this is likely to drive up prices of natural gas here at home. While Canada possesses only 0.9% of the world's natural gas reserves, it would require 3.8% of the entire world's supply just to extract the estimate of recoverable oil-- 173 billion barrels-- which is about 5 years' worth of oil use at the world's current consumption rate, or 4 years, if you figure in 1.21% growth of consumption (which is an average of the growth of oil consumption over the last 30 years).
So counting on oil and gas companies to extract even 10% of what may be in the Canadian Tar Sands would actually result in both the US and Canada depending much more heavily on nations such as Russia, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia or Venezuela for natural gas, and none of these nations are likely to become major suppliers to the United States- at least not willingly.

Iran, aside from having the world's 3rd largest oil reserves, also possesses the 2nd largest natural gas reserves in the world- 15.8%. Their oil and gas resources, like their banks, are nationalized and strictly controlled by the government. Justifying an invasion on the basis of "preventing a nuclear Iran" could just as likely be an attempt to "privatize" the Iranian natural resources. That prospect would seem highly unlikely if only it weren't for the US's long track-record of political and economic manipulation in Iran.



Shale Gas and Hydraulic Fracturing (or "Fracking") for Undiscovered Reserves

A commonly suggested (non-military) solution to this problem is to begin "fracking" for natural gas, absolutely everywhere. A number of environmental questions have been posed as to the safety of these operations, which have been suspected of poisoning aquifers used for drinking water and causing small earthquakes. Passed during the George W. Bush administration, the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (Sec. 322) allows a hydraulic fracturing technique invented in the 1970s by Halliburton exemption from the Safe Drinking Water Act (42 U.S.C. 300h(d)). It is colloquially known as the "Halliburton Loophole". However, a bill passed in 2011 requires companies to disclose the chemistry involved in such operations, but does not require that information to be disclosed to the public. UPDATE: A new regulation was announced recently, requiring chemicals to be disclosed to the public, but only after the drilling has begun.
Hydraulic fracturing of shale rock (aka "fracking")

Conventional mining of the shale rock is out of the question. Shale rock is often very deep below the surface and horizontally distributed, making conventional extraction nearly impossible. Pound-for-pound, the rock in which the natural gas is trapped contains less energy than a box of breakfast cereal, so physically digging for the rock is not feasible under any situation.

However, using horizontal drilling and pressurized chemicals, fracking operations can break up the porous shale and force the natural gas out. While the price of natural gas is currently too low for this method to be feasible, the hypothetical prospect of finding large deposits is almost too good for oil & gas companies to pass up.

For example, the Canadian province of Saskatchewan announced that there may be 2.9 trillion cubic meters in undiscovered natural gas in its shale. Undiscovered literally means nobody knows if it's there or not in commercially extractable quantities- all they know is that certain rock formations exist and are likely to contain an unknown quantity of natural gas (sometimes testing has been done and deposits are confirmed, but not yet "explored"). The purported supply in Saskatchewan is actually only a 15.6 year supply for Canada's annual consumption, based on 2010 usage & exports to the US (-not accounting for growth in consumption-).

That's still nowhere near the required 7,200 billion cubic meters needed for extraction of the aforementioned tar sands but if the price of natural gas were to increase, even a little bit, fracking shale rock would generate massive profits.

The United States possesses the 5th largest proven reserve of natural gas- around 7,700 billion cubic meters (based on estimates from a 2011 report by BP), but we use more than our domestic annual production, which is why we import from Canada, although some contend that we may no longer be required to do so; the United States may be home to an extremely large (but undiscovered) deposit of natural gas locked up in shale rock.

"Of the current total natural gas proved reserves of 244.7 tcf [6.929 trillion cubic meters] , EIA includes 32.8 tcf [928 billion cubic meters] of proved reserves as shale gas.
No systematic assessment of undiscovered technically recoverable shale gas resources has been conducted for the United States, though industry and academic experts estimate that the technically recoverable volumes of natural gas from these shale deposits are very large."
 -U.S. Fossil Fuel Resources: Terminology, Reporting, and Summary (Congressional Research Service, November 30, 2010) 

Instead of mining for natural resources that could be there, maybe we should start using the ones we know we have more wisely. Since the natural gas which may be trapped in the shale isn't going anywhere until we decide to start fracking it out, a reasonable course of action might be to explore renewable energies and technologies for energy production. It will create jobs now, not at some murky point down the road. We will still have all of our "untapped" resources in place, and we will be all the richer for doing it.

However, this prospect is tricky because "we" in the United States don't actually own our country's natural resources. Property owners do. And although Canada has a nationalized oil & gas concern called Petro-Canada, a deal has been struck with the landholders (oil & gas companies) in the western provinces wherein they pay a royalty to the government for extracting the resources. Afterward, they're free to do whatever they wish with the product- including shipping it off overseas to the highest bidder. It's all in the name of profit.


Policy Decisions

We have to start taking this seriously. The United States consumes an obscene amount of energy (about 20% of the world's energy demand each year)- over 80% of which comes from fossil fuels that take millions of years to form and are increasingly more difficult and energy-intensive to extract. What's more, these fuels are being consumed at an alarming rate which is not driven by anyone's best interests. The answer really should be in developing more efficient energy use, reducing overall energy use, and the deployment of renewable energy resources.

The Obama administration's budget request for Dept of Energy's Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy (EERE) division is only $2.3 billion. While that's a sizable increase over the previous US President's endowment, it's not enough.

I think we can all agree that since energy is so central to our way of life we must spend more money on developing clean and renewable energies. It is actually a matter of national security. If the US government allocated even 1% of the Dept. of Defense's budget to cover research and development on these issues each year, it would more than triple the current budgetary investment.

Approaching this dire issue as a national security issue, we could employ the Army Corps of Engineers to develop or build any structures or machinery required for renewable energy services-- especially any of those which are not specifically profitable-- instead of subsidizing private companies who are primarily seeking high profits.

I think the solutions to our energy problems are within our grasp, but we need to think differently- and be willing to approach these problems without a profit motive. What we come up with could improve the lives of people all over the world and clean up the environment at the same time.


Perspective

In the best-case scenario the Canadian Tar Sands project, together with the Keystone XL Pipeline, will net some pretty insignificant temporary advantages while making the US and Canada more heavily dependent on foreign suppliers of natural gas.

The subsequent acceleration of conventional natural gas consumption will certainly drive up prices- which will make fracking explorations more appealing. Right now it's not being done on a large scale because the price of natural gas isn't high enough. However, once we allow oil & gas companies to begin wasting 7.2 trillion cubic meters of the world's current supply on extracting a four-year supply of oil, there will be little choice.

Without development of clean & renewable energy sources,  the world will be stuck on a downward spiral of resource depletion until it cripples us. Right now, the people of Canada and the United States have an opportunity to make a choice about the future of energy. Committing to the Keystone XL Pipeline project is choosing the wrong path. It's not a good idea economically, environmentally, or politically for anyone except the oil & gas industry, who stand to make trillions of dollars while encouraging energy consumers to squander the world's fuel resources.




2012/01/30

Global Dynamics Part 1: Humanity at a Crossroads

Before I begin I would like to acknowledge Professor Jay W. Forrester (Germeshausen Professor Emeritus and Senior Lecturer at MIT and founder of System Dynamics) for writing this book, "World Dynamics" after which I have named this series. Here's a picture of his book, which you can buy on Amazon.com for around $100 (or-- you can go to the library and get it on an inter-library loan).



My friend Art Steele let me borrow it two or three years ago and I have yet to finish reading it because it is very dense- it reads like a cross between a technical manual and a draft of a Senate spending bill. Pages in the book mostly look like this:

I like it because there's a graph on almost every page.

Mostly, I like this book because it explores the possible future(s) that Humankind is facing. We are living in a time of unprecedented circumstances, and every person on Earth ought to understand this. The cause-and-effect of our world is far beyond linear-- that is what it means for a system to be "dynamic". Professor Forrester pointed out (as did Dr. Albert Bartlett, Professor Emeritus at the University of Colorado at Boulder, much more recently)  that these unprecedented circumstances are nothing less than the consequence of applying unlimited growth to limited resources. He was far ahead of his time in envisioning the world that we live in and the problems we will soon face.

But there is a lot more to the picture than what lies ahead. The origins of Humankind are murky, at best. Our earliest records go back no further than six thousand years, yet modern Human beings have been around a lot longer. It depends on who you ask, but I believe the current theory tells us that Humans over a hundred thousand years ago were every bit as intelligent as we are today.

Our genetic roots seem to stem away from Africa about sixty thousand years ago, although evidence of modern Humans found in a cave in Israel carbon-date to approximately 125,000 B.C. and some archaeologists claim there were several previous waves of migrations from Africa. There is a massive amount of missing data. What we do know is that at some point Humankind learned language and began storing knowledge verbally. With this, we began to define ourselves and our society. We came to understand ourselves and what it means to be Human. This was the dawn of civilization.

Possibly the most important feature of Human beings is not our biology- although it does endow us with the opposable thumbs and an unmatched manual dexterity- it's not even necessarily our intellect, although that does play a part, as we are able to communicate very complex ideas to each other and can complete highly advanced tasks...

Our greatest characteristic is our ability to work together for the common good, even when we don't like the people we are working with. We cooperate better than any other mammal that I know of, and to achieve things that our group has a shared belief in, because we can communicate very complex ideas and collectively reason through them together. This is part of what it means to have a Culture: a commonly agreed-upon system of beliefs and traditions that form a unifying purpose among a population of beings. When I reference Culture later in this text, I mean little more and no less than this.

As hunter-gatherers we used our cooperation to form tight clans who hunted and foraged for goods produced naturally by the Earth and we learned very quickly that by sharing and cooperating, the rewards were exponentially higher than fending as individuals. As agriculture spread throughout the world, the concept of cooperation and interdependence became simultaneously more obvious and more fruitful. When we invented symbology and developed the written word, we became able to transmit our knowledge across time and space.

So we have developed this Culture of Interdependence- where we have created a complex system of specializations to support the good of the general population, a system which we could scarcely live without. We are interdependent. Let that sink in; because it's very important. This is the secret of our success as a species and when applied properly and with purpose, it has an extremely positive effect.

A Culture of Interdependence.

It has lead us to a situation like this, where one can clearly see that in terms of unchecked population growth we're more successful than ever, right now:

Is this what success looks like?

The reason I chose this graph is not because it is accurate or precise. It certainly is neither. In order to accommodate the startling upward acceleration of population, a certain degree of precision had to be eliminated on the basis of scale. This graph shows our current population to be well above seven billion, which we know is false (for now)- but mostly all of the graphs on Human population that I could find looked basically like this. We have seen totally unprecedented population growth since the beginning of the Industrial Age. I just wanted to point out the magnitude of increase.

What is a convenient advantage to the graph above is that it clearly marks the "age" (in terms of "ages" of civilization). It shows rough boundaries of the Paleolithic and Neolithic Ages (the "Old Stone Age" & "New Stone Age"), the Bronze Age, the Iron Age, the Middle Ages, and the Industrial Age. With the exception of the Middle Ages, each "age" denotes the material or system dominant in our production of both weapons and tools. We first made our tools and weapons from stone, then bronze, then iron-- more recently we have "industrialized" weaponry by creating and building automatic weapons, tanks, tactical lasers, nuclear warheads and Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs). One could imagine that we have just crossed into the "Information Age" -- although information has been both a powerful weapon and a powerful tool throughout all of Human existence, and specific populations have reaped rewards from either sharing or withholding information.

Something more for us to consider is this: despite record extinctions of species (including ones we didn't even know existed until recently, for example), there is more biodiversity on the planet now than at any time during Earth's history (according to the fossil record). There may, in fact, be a higher quantity of complex forms of life alive now than in all of history combined.

Please excuse the typo, "...during of the..."

We don't know what the limits of our planet are for sustaining life. This has never been tested before, to our knowledge. We are facing problems, in a manner of speaking, "of Biblical proportions". We have an accelerating pollution problem, an impending climate change disaster, a failing economic system, a rapidly ballooning population, a shortage of clean water (partly due to our pollution problem), an impending food shortage, and dwindling fuel resources. Many of these problems can be solved, but not with the current political and economic system- or at least not without a dramatic restructuring of both of these.

We must examine the very fundamentals of our society, here in the US and Globally. Humanity is at a crossroads. We have some very important decisions to make in the next few years- and we have to act fast. As I will show, a few years are indeed all the time we have to make these critical decisions which will affect the lives of our children, grandchildren, and our subsequent descendants for at least a millennium to come.

Moreover, the decisions we make must be both Ethical and Rational if Humankind is to escape the coming pitfalls. There are plenty of seemingly "easy" answers. We could "eliminate" vast portions of populations- that would appear to "solve" many of our problems, wouldn't it? We, in the U.S., could use our unmatched military prowess to capture resources for our own use or we could deny others access to medicines or food or clean water. That is- if we wanted to subscribe to endless war and sell out our own humanity to the false distinction of "nationalism" (I will show later that even hoarding all the world's resources will not save us).

Additionally, in the scenario we are now facing, doing nothing is just as violent as deciding to go to war for our resources or planning mass "exterminations" of our own kind. Make no mistake about it: sitting idly by and making no progress on these issues is actively killing people -right now- and will doom our future to total collapse of everything we have achieved. The possible consequences may include, but are certainly not limited to things which are already in progress today:

    •    Global financial collapse
    •    Domestic and international political upheavals such as wars, revolutions, police-state activities
    •    Famine and disease
    •    Ecological concerns/disasters
    •    Cultural Erosion/Devolution

I believe that there are solutions to our problems which are both Ethical and Rational. The options before us are neither easy nor comfortable but it is our duty to explore these and come to a decision, either as a nation or as a planet, and to commit to a course of action immediately.