We all know the beginning of the story; a previously undocumented strain of coronavirus crossed over from the animal population - somehow - and caused an outbreak in Wuhan, China which quickly spread to the rest of the world despite intensive containment efforts.
This virus causes mild symptoms in approximately 85% of lab-confirmed cases (total number of asymptomatic is unknown and hotly debated), and causes severe to life-threatening illness in the remaining cases. Unfortunately, the transmission rate is so high that (as of May 11, 2020) the virus has infected over 4.3 million people worldwide, including 1.3 million people in the United States, in less than three months.
One of the complicating features of this virus, aside from the unknown rate of asymptomatic carriers, is the varying length of incubation. Most people who become ill develop symptoms within 5 - 12 days, although research shows that all carriers are most contagious by about the third day after infection. Outliers have carried the virus for up to 28 days without exhibiting symptoms or recovering. This means that localities can experience exponential increases in infections among the population before any practical response can be activated.
Hospitals can become overloaded because a typical case with mild symptoms generally lasts about two weeks, while a serious or critical/life-threatening case has a median length of three to six weeks from symptom onset to clinical recovery. That leaves no room for new patients if the rate of new infections is increasing exponentially.
Without a strict and comprehensive plan in place to contain the virus and limit the spread as soon as possible, we will always be playing catch-up.
The testing capacity to identify the infected did not yet exist when the US realized it was in trouble, and by the time a testing strategy was ready to be implemented, cases in the United States were already increasing by 18,000 or 20,000 per day. Hospitals have long debated just how many Acute Care beds are "efficient" to maintain, while simultaneously acknowledging in the very same reports that current capacities would be overwhelmed within two weeks of a major pandemic. Only about 1% of hospital capacity exists in rural areas nationwide.
Luckily, Governors of nearly every state came to respond with Stay-at-Home Orders that closed businesses not considered "essential". Citizens were advised to stay home and go out as little as possible, limiting their exposure to the general public. Emergency overflow medical service areas were activated, and hospitals cancelled or rescheduled non-essential and elective surgeries.
Due to this widespread response, only a few metropolitan areas experienced overwhelmed medical systems - most notably New York City.
But we're not done. More than 75% of lab-confirmed cases are still active infections in the US, and the total number of people who have been exposed to the virus remains largely unknown.
The economic effects of sudden furlough or unemployment across the population has been poorly handled by government placed "band-aids". $1200 to individual taxpayers and an additional $500 per child has taken too long to be delivered. States were left holding the bag when the CARES Act required them to provide unemployment insurance payments to the self-employed and independent contract workers who are usually not eligible. Current estimations of nationwide unemployment are between 15% - 20%, which approaches Great Depression levels of unemployment. Small businesses were "guaranteed" a $10,000 grant just for applying for an SBA Loan, but the agency instantly ran out of money and the administration changed the rules to "$1,000 per employee for an amount up to $10,000". Many businesses did not even receive that.
As a result, we're short on testing, medical supplies, staff & facilities, in the dark about where we really are in this crisis, short on cash to support our Consumer Economy, and short of resources to deliver everything the federal government promised in the CARES Act.
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